Chandan Sapkota’s Blog

Almost all the economic indicators registered negative growth rate within the last fiscal year, according to Economic Survey 2008/09 release by the Ministry of Finance (start to see the tables below). The forecast for this fiscal calendar year will not look any better. The plunge in manufacturing and agricultural sectors is very troubling for a struggling economy.

The overall economy grew at 3.8 percent against a forecast of around 7 percent (this past year the growth rate was 5.3 percent). 473 (Thank God Nepal remittances inflow continued to increase!). The agricultural sector grew at 2.1 percent (last year it was 4.7 percent) and non-agricultural sector grew at 4.8 percent (last year it was 5.7 percent). As a percentage of GDP, local cost savings is down to 8 percent from 11. Yr 21 percent last fiscal.

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Thanks to increasing remittances gross national savings has increased to 32.32 percent (% of GDP) from 31.yr 53 percent last fiscal. Exports have increased by around three percentage points to 15.70 percent from the first eight weeks of last fiscal year’s 12.08 percent. However, imports have increased to 37.42 percent from last fiscal year’s 32.66 percent, thus increasing the gap in the balance of trade (BoT).

Note that balance of obligations (BoP) has been in positive territory. Revenue/GDP increased to 14.8% from 13.2% last fiscal yr but total Federal government expenditure/GDP increased to 22.2% from 19.7% last fiscal 12 months. Budget deficit/GDP decreased to 3.8% from 4.1% last fiscal yr. Gross fixed capital development as a share of GDP risen to 21 hardly.25 percent from 21.12 months 11 percent from last. On gross fixed capital investment front, government investment/GDP was 4.1 percent (up from 3.1% last fiscal year) and private investment/GDP was 17.1 percent (down from 18% last fiscal yr). Gross investment/GDP stood at 29.7 percent (down from 32.8% last fiscal season).

Similarly, the space between gross local savings and gross investments/GDP risen to -21.7% from -21.6% last fiscal 12 months. The resource difference– saving-investment space (gross domestic savings minus gross local fixed capital formation) — (% of GDP) was 2.60 percent from -0.26 percent last fiscal calendar year (again, thanks to increasing remittances). The percentage of investment to GDP decreased to 29.7 percent to 31.8 percent from last fiscal 12 months.

Exports/GDP increased to 21.7 percent from 20.Season 6 percent from last. Due to impressive revenue collection, income mobilization/GDP increased to 14.8 percent against 13.year 2 percent last fiscal. Outstanding debt/GDP increased to 41 percent from 39.6 percent (first eight months of the fiscal year), displaying that expenditure continues to outweighed national income. Foreign personal debt/GDP also increased to 28.5 percent from last fiscal year’s 26.4 percent. Meanwhile, local debt/GDP actually decreased to 12.5 percent from 13.2 percent in last fiscal 12 months.

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